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In a promising development for space weather forecasting, scientists may soon be able to predict powerful solar storms capable of disrupting Earth’s electronics more than 12 hours in advance—thanks to a successful test using the European Space Agency’s Solar Orbiter spacecraft.
Solar storms, triggered by coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—massive bursts of plasma from the sun—can generate intense magnetic fields that interfere with satellites, power grids, and communication systems on Earth. While current monitoring systems rely on satellites positioned at Lagrange points, just 1% of the distance between Earth and the sun, they typically offer less than an hour’s warning before impact.
Now, researchers led by Emma Davies at the Austrian Space Weather Office have demonstrated that Solar Orbiter, which orbits between 30% and 90% of the distance to the sun, can provide significantly earlier alerts. Though not originally designed for forecasting, the spacecraft’s fortuitous alignment during CME events on March 17 and 23 allowed Davies’ team to measure magnetic fields and solar wind speeds, modeling the internal structure of each CME.
Remarkably, their predictions of geomagnetic storm strength were delivered in under five minutes and matched real-world outcomes with lead times of 7 and 15 hours, respectively.
“The fact that not too much extra happened to it was quite lucky, and these CMEs were seemingly quite well behaved,” said Davies, noting that future events may be less predictable due to the dynamic nature of solar plasma.
Chris Scott, a space weather expert at the University of Reading, praised the approach: “It gives us early warning as to the likely configuration of magnetic field within each eruption,” he said. However, he cautioned that more data is needed to refine models and develop dedicated solar storm monitoring missions closer to the sun.
If successful, such missions could revolutionize our ability to prepare for and mitigate the effects of space weather—protecting critical infrastructure and enhancing global resilience.
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